Both Uses of "conjecture" in "The Garden of Forking Paths"

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Both Uses

conjecture
in
The Garden of Forking Paths
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After more than a hundred years, the details are irretrievable; but it is not hard to conjecture what happened.†
*
These conjectures diverted me; but none seemed to correspond, not even remotely, to the contradictory chapters of Ts'ui Pên.†

conjectures = guesses (opinions based on inconclusive evidence)

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Definitions:

(1) (conjecture)
a conclusion or opinion based on inconclusive evidence; or the act of forming of such a conclusion or opinion

A conjecture can be widely believed, but the word is also frequently used to imply that evidence is insufficient to support a belief.
(2) (meaning too rare to warrant focus)