Both Uses of "conjecture" in "Henry IV, Part 2"

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Both Uses

conjecture
in
Henry IV, Part 2
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Rumour is a pipe Blown by surmises, jealousies, conjectures, And of so easy and so plain a stop That the blunt monster with uncounted heads, The still-discordant wavering multitude, Can play upon it.†
Scene 1.1

conjectures = guesses (opinions based on inconclusive evidence)
Conjecture, expectation, and surmise
Of aids incertain should not be admitted.
Scene 1.3 *

conjecture = conclusion or opinion based on inconclusive evidence

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Definitions:

(1) (conjecture)
a conclusion or opinion based on inconclusive evidence; or the act of forming of such a conclusion or opinion

A conjecture can be widely believed, but the word is also frequently used to imply that evidence is insufficient to support a belief.
(2) (meaning too rare to warrant focus)